Essex Region Conservation Authority (ERCA) is the recognized authority for watershed information updates. They have developed a series of escalating precautionary public messages to advise residents of potential or imminent flooding conditions.

 Watershed Conditions/Safety Bulletin
 Factors could be dangerous, but flooding is not expected.
 Flood Outlook
 Early notice of flooding potential based on weather forecasts.
 Flood Watch
Potential for flooding within specific watercourses or municipalities. Municipalities, EMS and landowners in flood-prone areas should be prepared.
 Flood Warning
 Flooding is imminent or is occurring in specific watercourses or municipalities.

ERCA Watershed Conditions Statement - May 3, 2022

The Essex Region Conservation Authority advises that, due to the forecasted rainfall today, there is a concern for the accumulation of standing water in low lying areas throughout the Essex Region, especially adjacent to and within floodplain areas of all major waterways and shoreline areas. Rainfall is expected to be roughly 20-30 mm with some areas potentially receiving up to 35 mm with localized downpours. This amount and duration of rainfall falls below Flood Watch thresholds; however, due to the combination of above average lake levels and forecasted rainfall, a Watershed Conditions Statement will remain in effect until 10am Wednesday morning, May 4, 2022.  

People are encouraged to take extra caution and avoid areas where flooding is occurring as well as rivers, streams, and shoreline areas during significant rainfall and wind events. The combination of slippery banks, waves, waves overtopping shoreline structures, and fast moving water can be dangerous. Standing water can also present its own unseen hazards. Children, pets, and livestock should be kept away from flowing or standing water as well as shoreline areas.

Watershed Conditions Statement - March 22, 2022

The Essex Region Conservation Authority advises that, due to the potential rainfall of up to 40mm over the next 48 hours across the Windsor-Essex region, there is an expectation of standing water in low lying areas. If the rainfall events occur relatively close to each other (i.e. back to back), local surface drainage features are expected to flow at or near capacity. This amount and duration of rainfall falls below Flood Watch thresholds; however, due to the combination of above average lake levels and forecasted rainfall, a Watershed Conditions Statement will remain in effect until 10am Thursday morning, March 24, 2022.

People are encouraged to take extra caution and avoid areas where flooding is occurring as well as rivers, streams, and shoreline areas during significant rainfall and wind events. The combination of slippery banks, waves, waves overtopping shoreline structures, and fast moving water can be dangerous. Standing water can also present its own unseen hazards. Children, pets, and livestock should be kept away from flowing or standing water as well as shoreline areas.

Essex Region Conservation Authority officials will continue to monitor forecasts. This advisory will be modified as required.

 

Shoreline Conditions Statement - February 15, 2022

The Essex Region Conservation Authority advises that, due to the combination the forecasted sudden increase in temperature and predicted rainfall amounts, a Flood Watch is in effect for Essex Region. 

In the past 7 days, the Essex Region experienced some mild temperatures with a small amount of mixed precipitation (rainfall and snow). This small amount of precipitation was mostly direct runoff as the ground conditions were still relatively frozen. Temperatures have since quickly dropped below zero with much of this runoff frozen in agricultural fields. Forecasts are now predicting a quick rise in temperature on Wednesday into Thursday, with temperatures potentially reaching roughly 10 degrees Celsius. These conditions are expected to quickly melt the remaining ice and snow. At the same time, forecasts are predicting as much 35 to 40 mm of rainfall beginning on Wednesday evening and lasting until Thursday afternoon. This combination is expected to generate an increased amount of runoff, with standing water expected in low lying areas across the region.  Surface drainage features such as roadside ditch and municipal drains may not have their full capacity available as the mixture of salt and snow can sometimes form blocks of thick ice within the drains through various freeze-thaw cycles. 

Forecasts may still change; however the currently forecasted combination of rising temperatures and rainfall warrants a Flood Watch for the inland regions of the watershed as this is likely to cause an increased volume of direct runoff, standing water in low lying areas, and potentially higher than normal water levels in surface drainage features. 

People are encouraged to take extra caution to avoid areas where flooding is occurring as well as rivers, streams, and shoreline areas during significant rainfall and wind events. The combination of slippery banks, waves, waves overtopping shoreline structures, and fast moving water can be dangerous. Standing water can also present its own unseen hazards. Children, pets, and livestock should be kept away from flowing or standing water and shoreline areas.

Essex Region Conservation Authority officials will continue to monitor forecasts. This advisory will be modified as required.

 

Shoreline Conditions Statement - January 11, 2022

The Essex Region Conservation Authority advises that, due to the forecasted wind conditions this evening and lasting until tomorrow afternoon, a Shoreline Conditions Statement is in effect for the following area: 

  • Lake Erie Shoreline including south Pelee Island

Winds are currently mild blowing out of the south-southwest over Lake Erie. Forecasts predict that later tonight, wind speeds will shift slightly to out of the southwest direction and increase in speed to reach sustained speeds above 40km/hr, with gusts reaching up to 60km/hr. These winds are forecasted to last overnight and dissipate by tomorrow afternoon. Lake levels still remain elevated compared to longterm averages. The combination of elevated lake levels and predicted wind conditions are below ERCA Flood Watch thresholds; however, there remains some risk of flooding and accelerated nearshore erosion along the Lake Erie shoreline including south Pelee Island as a result of increased wave activity. The forecasted conditions are expected to dissipate by 4:00 pm on January 12, 2022.

Please take extra caution to avoid areas where flooding is occurring as well as rivers, streams, and shoreline areas during significant rainfall and wind events. The combination of slippery banks, waves, waves overtopping shoreline structures, and fast moving water can be dangerous. Standing water can also present its own unseen hazards. Children, pets, and livestock should be kept away from flowing or standing water and shoreline areas.

Shoreline Conditions Statement - January 4, 2022

The Essex Region Conservation Authority advises that, due to the forecasted wind conditions lasting until Thursday evening January 6, a Shoreline Conditions Statement is in effect for the following areas:
  • Lake Erie Shoreline including south Pelee Island
  • Western shoreline of Pelee Island and islands within the western basin of Lake Erie
Forecasts predict that wind speeds will increase overnight to sustained speeds above 40km/hr and shift to out of the southwest direction. Forecasts then predict winds will continue to shift to out of the west-southwest and west directions and increase in speed to reach sustained speeds of up to and over 50km/hr with frequent high gusts by tomorrow afternoon. These winds are forecasted to continue through to Thursday, January 6 and slowly decrease in speed. West winds of this magnitude are expected to temporarily lower water levels in the western basin of Lake Erie; however, in areas where there is deeper water, strong wave activity is expected to cause some splashing and spray, and may also cause damage to shoreline structures. For the Essex Region, larger/strong waves are expected along the west shoreline of Pelee Island (Township of Pelee). In addition to splashing, spray and potential damage to shoreline structures, there is an increased risk of accelerated erosion with the predicted wind conditions. West Shore Road on Pelee Island is of special concern as waves can cause significant erosion and damage to the shoreline protection works along the roadway. Should waves be strong enough, there is an additional risk of damage to the West Shore Road roadway surface.

Shoreline Conditions Statement - December 10, 2021

The Essex Region Conservation Authority advises that, due to the forecasted wind conditions this evening and lasting through the weekend to Monday morning, a Shoreline Conditions Statement is in effect for the following areas:

  • Western shoreline of Pelee Island and islands within the western basin of Lake Erie

Winds are currently mild blowing out of the southwest over Lake Erie. Winds speeds are expected to increase tonight and throughout the day tomorrow reaching speeds of up to and over 50 km/hr sustained out of the west and west-southwest directions, with frequent high gusts. On Sunday, winds are forecasted to reduce slightly to sustained speeds of over 35 km/hr and eventually dissipate by the morning of Monday, December 13th. West winds of this magnitude are expected to temporarily lower water levels in the western basin of Lake Erie; however, in areas where there is deeper water, strong wave activity is expected to cause some splashing and spray, and may also cause damage to shoreline structures. For the Essex Region, larger/strong waves are expected along the west shoreline of Pelee Island (Township of Pelee). In addition to splashing, spray and potential damage to shoreline structures, there is an increased risk of accelerated erosion with the predicted wind conditions. West Shore Road on Pelee Island is of special concern as waves can cause significant erosion and damage to the shoreline protection works along the roadway. Should waves be strong enough, there is an additional risk of damage to the West Shore Road roadway surface.

The Essex Region Conservation Authority advises that, due to the combination of forecasted rainfall and rising temperatures heading into the weekend, a Watershed Conditions Statement will be in effect until Sunday December 12, 2021.

Watercourses, including major tributaries and local surface drainage features, may experience a rise in water levels as forecasts suggest the region is expecting 15-20 mm of rainfall starting tonight. Additionally, the ground conditions were wet preceding the cold temperatures followed by a light snowfall and now, warmer temperatures are expected through the weekend. These conditions in combination with the predicted rainfall may result in higher runoff volumes than normal resulting in prolonged standing water in many fields and low lying areas, and an increase in water levels for many of the watercourses across the region.

Watershed Conditions Statement - December 6, 2021

The Essex Region Conservation Authority advises that water levels in local watercourses have risen due to the combination of the rainfall that fell on Sunday evening and the pre-existing wet ground conditions. Water courses, including major tributaries and local surface drainage features experienced a minor rise in water level late last week as the rise in temperature caused the snowfall to melt. This also saturated the ground conditions
and left many agricultural field tiles flowing for a prolonged duration. Rainfall on Sunday evening across the Essex Region was on average approximately 20 mm, but varied between 15 mm and up to nearly 40 mm in east Leamington. With the saturated ground conditions and approximately 20 mm of rainfall, many watercourses have experienced a rise in water levels to near bank-full conditions. These conditions are
expected to remain for the majority of the week. Low lying areas including floodplains for all major water courses are anticipated to have flowing and accumulated standing water as the upper reaches of these watercourses continue to slowly drain. There is additional rain in the forecast for the area near the end of this week. Officials will continue to monitor field conditions and forecasts and issue any advisories as necessary.

Flood Watch - December 6, 2021

The Essex Region Conservation Authority advises that, due to the forecasted wind conditions this afternoon and lasting through the evening, a Flood Watch is in effect for the following areas:
  • Western shoreline of Pelee Island and islands within the western basin of Lake Erie; and
  • Municipality of Leamington, west of Point Pelee National Park (Pigeon Bay)
Wind is currently blowing out of the west above 30 km/hr over Lake Erie. These conditions are expected to worsen throughout the day reaching speeds up to and over 50 km/hr sustained out of the west and west southwest directions. These conditions are expected to start early in the afternoon and last until late Monday night, eventually dissipating by the morning of Tuesday, December 7th. West winds of this magnitude are expected to temporarily lower water levels in the western basin of Lake Erie; however, in areas where there are deeper water, strong wave activity is expected to cause significant splashing and spray, and may also cause damage to shoreline structures. For the Essex Region, larger/strong waves are expected along the west shoreline of Pelee Island (Township of Pelee) and the area west of Point Pelee National Park (Municipality of Leamington), specifically along Robson Road and southerly along Point Pelee Drive (County Road 33). In addition to splashing, spray and potential damage to shoreline structures, there is an increased risk of accelerated erosion with the predicted wind conditions. West Shore Road on Pelee Island is of special concern as waves can cause significant erosion and damage to the shoreline protection works along the roadway. Should waves be strong enough, there is an additional risk of damage to the West Shore Road roadway surface.

Watershed Conditions Statement - October 29, 2021

The Essex Region Conservation Authority advises that, due to the potential rainfall of up to 30mm throughout the day today, there is a concern for the accumulation of standing water in low lying areas throughout the Windsor Essex Region, especially adjacent to and within floodplain areas of all major waterways and shoreline areas. This amount and duration of rainfall falls below Flood Watch thresholds; however, due to the combination of high lake levels, saturated ground conditions and forecasted rainfall, a Watershed Conditions Statement will remain in effect until 10am tomorrow morning, October 30, 2021.

Flood Watch - October 28, 2021

The Essex Region Conservation Authority advises that a Flood Watch is in effect for the Lake Erie shoreline, the Detroit River shoreline, and the Lake St. Clair shoreline west of Belle River to the City of Windsor. Winds are currently moderate and out of the east-southeast. Forecasts indicate that winds are expected to stay out of the easterly directions until mid-Saturday, but potentially increase in speed tonight. Winds could be up to nearly 40 km/hr out of the east on Lake Erie. By Friday afternoon, sustained speeds may be up to 55 km/hr over Lake Erie and out of the northeast, and diminishing through Saturday. With current lake levels still elevated as compared to long term averages, low lying areas along the shorelines are still susceptible to flooding and accelerated rates of erosion due in combination of higher water levels and wind induced waves. The area most likely to be impacted by these conditions is in the Municipality of Leamington between Wheatley Harbour and Point Pelee National Park. Waves can potentially overtop breakwalls and flood low lying properties and roadways within the immediate area.

Strong enough winds out of the northeast over Lake Erie can elevated can further elevated water levels in the western basin, temporarily elevating water in the Detroit River. With current lake levels, the risk of flooding along the Detroit River is much lower under these conditions, however, water levels may still elevate and cause some impact gravity drainage systems. Winds over Lake St. Clair are anticipated to be generally out of the east and between 30 and 40 km/hr. Waves with the potential for splashing and spray west of Belle River is anticipated; however, at this time, winds are not anticipated to be strong enough to have an impact on Detroit River water levels.

Watershed Conditions Statement - October 14, 2021

The Essex Region Conservation Authority advise that, due to the potential for heavy rainfall between Thursday night through Saturday morning, there is an elevated risk of flooding along rivers, streams and creeks within the Windsor-Essex. There is also an elevated risk of ponding water in low lying areas, especially adjacent to and within floodplains, and in urban areas where rainfall rates could be heavier. Current forecasts vary; however, there is the potential for up to 25 – 30 mm, with some areas experiencing up to 50 mm in heavier downpours. Rainfall is expected to be heavier Thursday night into Friday morning, with the potential for more isolated thunderstorms on Friday. Lake levels still remain elevated as compared to long term averages which can affect gravity drainage systems across the region.

Flood Watch - September 23, 2021

The Essex Region Conservation Authority advises that the previously issued Shoreline Conditions Statement has been upgraded to a Flood Watch. Winds are currently out of the north at sustained speeds of 45km/hr with gusts up to 65 km/hr. Current forecasts predict these winds will continue at the above noted speeds and shift slightly to out of the north west overnight until early Thursday morning. A Flood Watch for the Lake St. Clair shoreline from the City of Windsor to Stoney Point in the Municipality of Lakeshore is in effect until approximately 6am Thursday morning September 23, 2021.

Forecast then predict winds will shift early Thursday morning to out of the south and south southwest and continue at speeds of up to 40km/hr with gusts of up to 45km/hr. During this time, a Flood Watch will be in effect for the Lake Erie shoreline including south Pelee Island. Forecasts predict these winds will continue throughout the day and overnight to Friday morning. The Flood Watch for the Lake Erie shoreline including
south Pelee Island will be in effect until 11am Friday September 24, 2021.

Flood Watch - August 12, 2021

The Essex Region Conservation Authority advises that due to heavy rainfall across the region from multiple storms through this morning’s early hours, a Flood Watch is in effect for the Essex Region. Storms have brought roughly 30-50 mm in some areas as of 6:00 am this morning with another storm passing through that could bring the total amount to 50-75 mm by noon today. Ground conditions are fairly wet and lake levels remain elevated, the combination of which results in an increased risk of flooding near major watercourses. Heavy rainfall can cause accumulated standing water and rivers and drains can spill into low lying floodplain areas. This Flood Watch remains in effect until 10:00 am Friday, August 13, 2021. 

Watershed Conditions Statement - August 9, 2021

The Essex Region Conservation Authority advises that, due to heavy rainfall forecasted in the Region for mid to late afternoon, there is an increased risk of flooding. Forecasts indicate that a heavy thunderstorm is expected to cross Essex County mid-to-late afternoon with rainfall rates as high as 25 mm/hr (1 inch/hr) with the possibility of reaching a total volume of 25-35 mm of rainfall in a downpour. The current storm tracks suggest that the areas most likely to be hit with the heaviest of rainfall are Amherstburg, LaSalle, Windsor and Tecumseh, as well as the most southern areas of Kingsville and Leamington. Lake levels remain elevated compared to long term average and continue to affect gravity drainage outlets. Should any of these areas receive this rainfall in a short duration and over a wide enough aerial distribution, some localized flooding is possible with the accumulation of standing water and some localized flooding as drainage schemes may have a reduced capacity to convey the water safely downstream. This Watershed Conditions will remain in effect until 10:00am tomorrow (August 10, 2021) and will be upgraded as necessary.

Flood Watch - July 16, 2021

The Essex Region Conservation Authority advises that due to the predicted heavy rainfall today and overnight to tomorrow morning, a Flood Watch is in effect for the Essex Region. Rainfall is expected to be roughly 25-35mm, with some areas receiving up to 50mm. Rainfall rates could reach up to 10-15mm per hour in the heavier downpours. The existing wet ground conditions from the rainfall received in the last couple of days, in conjunction with the elevated lake levels, increases the risk of accumulation of standing water in low lying areas throughout the Essex Region, especially adjacent to and within floodplain areas of all major waterways and shoreline areas. Areas with poor drainage may be impacted by this rainfall event. The Flood Watch will remain in affect until noon tomorrow July 17, 2021.

Watershed Conditions Statement - July 8, 2021 (Updated)

The Essex Region Conservation Authority advises that due to the forecasted rainfall this afternoon and evening, there is a concern for the accumulation of standing water in low lying areas throughout the Essex Region, especially adjacent to and within floodplain areas of all major waterways and shoreline areas. Rainfall is expected be roughly 20 mm with some areas receiving up to 40 mm with localized downpours. This amount and duration of rainfall falls below Flood Watch thresholds; however, due to the combination of existing wet ground conditions, high lake levels and forecasted rainfall, a Watershed Conditions Statement will remain in effect until 10:00 am tomorrow July 9, 2021.

Watershed Conditions Statement - July 8, 2021

The Essex Region Conservation Authority advises that due to the forecasted rainfall, there is a concern for the accumulation of standing water in low lying areas throughout the Essex Region, especially adjacent to and within floodplain areas of all major waterways and shoreline areas. Rainfall is expected be roughly 35-40 mm with some areas receiving up to 50 mm with localized downpours. Forecasts are currently suggesting that storms are more likely to affect the southern portion of the County, however, conditions can change rapidly with the quick formation of thunderstorms across the region. This amount and duration of rainfall falls below Flood Watch thresholds; however, due to the combination of high lake levels and forecasted rainfall, a Watershed Conditions Statement will remain in effect until noon on July 8, 2021.

Flood Watch - June 25, 2021

The Essex Region Conservation Authority advises that new forecasts are predicting rainfall today of roughly 40mm with isolated areas having the potential to reach 60mm of rain with multiple thunderstorms. There is a concern for the accumulation of standing water in low lying areas throughout the Essex Region, especially adjacent to and within floodplain areas of all major waterways and shoreline areas.  Forecasts continue to indicate the possibility of reaching up to an additional 20 mm of rainfall tomorrow. The Flood Watch will remain in effect until noon Sunday June 27, 2021.

People are encouraged to take extra caution to avoid areas where flooding is occurring as well as rivers, streams, and shoreline areas during significant rainfall and wind events. The combination of slippery banks, waves, waves overtopping shoreline structures, and fast moving water can be dangerous. Standing water can also present its own unseen hazards. Children, pets, and livestock should be kept away from flowing or
standing water and shoreline areas.

In addition, the Essex Region Conservation Authority advises that, due to the forecasted wind conditions beginning this morning and lasting until noon Sunday, June 27, 2021, a Shoreline Conditions Statement is in effect for the Lake Erie shoreline. Lake levels remain elevated even with levels having dropped over the past few months as a result of lower water supply and seasonal decline. Winds are currently moderate out of the south. Forecasts indicate winds are expected to increase throughout the day until they reach 35 km/hr, with gusts up to 45 km/hr, by this
afternoon. Winds will continue to come out of the south, however, will begin to decrease to 25-30 km/hr by tomorrow and last until mid day Sunday. The combination of elevated lake levels and predicted wind conditions are below ERCA Flood Watch thresholds; however, there remains some risk of flooding and accelerated nearshore erosion along the Lake Erie shoreline including south Pelee Island as a result of the increased wave activity. The forecasted conditions are expected to dissipate by 12:00pm on Sunday June 27, 2021.

Flood Warning - May 28, 2021

The Essex Region Conservation Authority advises that a Flood Warning is in effect with flooding occurring in the following locations:

  • Lake Erie shoreline in the Municipality of Leamington, specifically between Mersea Road 2 and Fox Run Road. This section of roadway is completely inundated and impassable. This area should be avoided.
  • Lake Erie shoreline in the Municipality of Leamington, specifically sections of Marentette Beach Road and East Beach Road north of the Road 1 Dyke. There are sections of roadway under water with some adjacent private lands flooded.
  • Lake Erie shoreline and Cedar Creek area in the Town of Kingsville. The area along Heritage Road (County Road 50) west of Cedar Creek Bridge has some localized ponding along sections of the pavement with the roadway being low-lying combined with wave spray, rainfall, elevated water level in Cedar Creek. Cedar Creek water levels are elevated and there is a high risk of flooding in private lands and low lying sections of roadway between Conservation Blvd. and Ford Road.
  • Pelee Island, specifically North Shore Road and East Shore Road.

Strong northeast winds have caused water levels to rise in the western basin of Lake Erie. The increased water levels coupled with waves overtopping shoreline structures has caused water to begin flooding low lying areas identified above.

Water levels in major tributaries along Lake Erie and the Detroit River (i.e. Canard River) are elevated causing a high risk of flooding on low lying roadways such as South Riverview Drive and Canard Drive.

Areas across the region have also experienced roughly 15-20 mm of rainfall that has exacerbated flooding in some areas. Conditions are expected to worsen throughout today with forecasts indicating strong winds and waves lasting through today and potentially until later Saturday evening.

People should avoid areas where flooding is occurring, especially unnecessary traffic as water flowing over roadways can leave drivers unaware of hazards below the surface of the water (debris, sections of road washouts, edge of pavement location). This Flood Warning will be updated as required and will remain in effect until Sunday, May 30.

The previously issued Flood Watch remains in effect for all other areas not currently experiencing flooding (see below). 

Flood Watch - May 28, 2021

The Essex Region Conservation Authority advises that, due to the predicted wind conditions indicating strong winds out of the east and northeast, a Flood Watch is in effect for the following areas:

  • Lake Erie shoreline including Pelee Island
  • Lake St. Clair shoreline from Windsor to Belle River
  • Detroit River shoreline

Wind speeds are predicted to reach speeds around 40 km/hr in the early hours of Friday morning, with further increases through the day reaching speeds around 50 km/hr and higher by early afternoon. Gusts are forecasted to be anywhere from 50 to 70 km/hr over open water. These conditions may last through the majority of Saturday, May 29, with winds predicted to dissipate by Saturday evening.

With these forecasted conditions, there is a potential for waves to build up over 2 metres in Lake Erie and up to 1.0 metre in Lake St. Clair. Areas subjected to direct wave impact can sustain accelerated erosion and damage to breakwall structures. Any waves overtopping and splashing can cause shoreline areas to flood. A primary area of concern for direct wave attack and potential flooding is the shoreline area between Wheatley Harbour and Point Pelee National Park, in the Municipality. In addition to waves, there is a potential for water levels to increase in the western basin with a strong northeast wind. This may cause water levels to increase substantially up the Detroit River as well. Low lying areas with gravity storm sewer systems may see water backup through roadway catch basins if water levels raise high enough in the western basin.

Watershed Conditions Statement - April 8, 2021

The Essex Region Conservation Authority advises that, due to the potential for rainfall up to 25 mm over an 8 hour period in combination with elevated lake levels, there is a concern for the accumulation of standing water in low lying areas and floodplains, specifically across the western municipalities of Essex County (Amherstburg, Essex, LaSalle, Windsor and Tecumseh). The elevated lake levels have caused major tributaries to hold lake water in the downstream reaches, which can have some affected on local drainage systems. The is the potential for thunderstorms to track across the western portion of the County bringing anywhere between 20 and 30 mm of rainfall. This falls below Flood Watch thresholds; however, due to the combination of high lake levels and rainfall, a Watershed Conditions Statement will remain in effect this evening though Friday.

To check flood warning status, visit: essexregionconservation.ca/flood-status